The probability for any short-term disruption to supply is virtually no different now than when the price peaked. The quick 14% drop follows Bernanke's price signal on the price of money--raising the interest rate.
The popular analytic on oil prices continues to be a fraud. These analysts are the minions of elite power. If they are not so inept to actually believe the analysis because they have been educated to, they know that they have to produce analytics that please the plutocrats, the supra-sovereign ruling class, to keep their jobs. These slaves are as corrupt as their masters.
Markets are being determined, commanded, by a post-monetarist consolidation of capital. A model of consolidated power (the elitist model) has the most predicitive utility. Using a pluralist model is either inept or a deliberate fraud with the inaccuracies explained away with fallacies of fundamental attribution, typically with effects being attributed as cause.
In either case, inept or corrupt is not in the public interest, but systematically engineered to produce a predictable result that is a special interest. It is the function of the pop analyst to give both the means and ends a pluralistic legitimacy because a command legitimacy is not legal by statute or in theory.
Free market economics cannot be verified with the command economy of a consolidated capital. It must be validated with a false legitimacy, with the perpetration of a fraud. Fraud in the marketplace is a crime. The criminals need to be prosecuted not rewarded.
Predicting prices is a technical function of mass movement, momentum, and fast stochastics. It is a function of an extreme overconsolidation of capital and command economy. Nothing has value unless the plutocrats, the ruling class says so. It is a power structure that lacks both political and economic legitimacy. The remedy is to replace the elitist model with the pluralist model of power. Until then, the system operates with a false legitimacy and the need to monetize the retributive value supported by false technocratic analytics.
The oil market will be a noisy trend down. The result will be an unpredictable (unorthodox) improvement of macro fundamentals in correlation with rising rates with the determining variable being solely the mass movement of capital into equities. The movement will cause the recovery (a more progressive tax code will have the same effect but with a true legitimacy). The improved macro will just be a technical excuse, a fraud, to sham the illegitimate operation of a command economy.
For the small investor, always staying opposite the momentum (selling into the momentum strength) the probability of losing money to false technicals (the stock in trade of a consolidated capital and its MBA management) is close to zero. Chasing momentum is a strong negative. Buy and hold is also a very risky strategy with a consolidated capital like we have now. The probability that investment will be shocked in a sudden reversal is nearly one (1). You can count on it. Just look at the price of oil.
The way to make the market safe for small investors is to render it with a genuine pluralistic legitimacy.
The best probability for that is to build the coalition for Senator Barack Obama, the next president of the United States.
Very best wishes.
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