Sunday, December 14, 2008

Organizing for Needed Change

If We The People want to effectively reverse and eliminate the cyclical crisis we are now experiencing, not only is trickle-down economics an empirically disconfirmed hypothesis that demands much-needed change, but the organized consolidation of the economy that it operates to produce and maintain demands change as well.

We see the congressional delegaton attempting to apply solutions to our economic woes that are the problem. It can hardly be characterized as "change we need."

From the price of commodities to the way public and private entities plan what we produce, the problem is organizational.

Bailing out what is "too big to fail" just perpetuates the problem--too big to fail--and effectively validates the "belief" that it is the model of efficiency when it is a hypothesis clearly disconfirmed by the evidence (massive unemployment and massive monetary support).

The massive monetary support will not reorganize the problem. It will provide a short term monetary stimulus that will forget the cause of the problem--the acquired belief that bigger is better, or most efficient.

The evidence that it is not is overwhelming!

Organizing for the consolidation of the political economy, for the consolidation of power, is the status quo ante, not change we need.

Instead of a point at which change is to naturally occur for a continuous, empirical improvement, our current crisis is being used to reinvent the problem into a confirmed consolidation of practical power that allows for elitist command and control of our political economy and for a continued false self-determination of The People.

If we do not reinvest, reorganize, consolidation of economic factors into small factors of manageable efficiencies that are quickly responsive to supply and demand costs and benefits and the tastes and preferences of the consumer (the public) with an equally quick accountability, the public is condemned to elite management of the political economy that in no way ensures a rational, objective, pragmatic decisional process that the collective will of The People is most apt to provide with a clearly verifiable legitimacy.

It is not impossible, and surely more possible and less complex than what we are doing now, to invest a small entrepreneurial economic system in which the stabilty of the system is not dependant, and therefore less apt to be corrupt, abusive and inefficient, if the failure of one industry or market entity does not condemn the entire system to short or long-term cyclical crisis.

Instead of how big you are being the measure of success, surviving the pluralism of the free marketplace is the measure of success.

Allowing for organized consolidation renders as the measure of success how corrupt and abusive a business can be and still stay in business (like securitizing--consolidating--debt obligations too big to let fail and impossible to renegotiate so that the debtor must fail and the lender must be bailed out). The abuse includes the margin of profit (inflation and unemployment to be managed politically) and a decisional process that leads to clearly verfied inefficiencies of current form that are shown to be difficult at best to reverse even with the force of public funding and authority. Reversing this measure of success is the change we need, and is entirely possible.

More than $2 trillion of monetary and fiscal stimulus (investment) is best spent to pluralize (deconsolidate) the economy, and power. The reason this alternative is ignored if not discouraged is because it will effectively cure what ails us. It will minimize the probability of crisis by not maintaining a consolidated model of power in which its huge costs are rendered a predictable, recurrent benefit of a power elite and a means to apply power rather than properly deny it.

Instead of denying access to power the inefficiencies of aspiring to be big enough to be corrupt and abusive, what access to financing provides and largely determines, the rigors of pluralism are discouraged for a systematic structure of power in which the pursuit of life, liberty and happiness is largely the discretion of a ruling class, enforced by the self-determination of the masses to be in service to it. It is antithetical to a structural model for freedom, morality, and efficiency.

Maintaining the model we have now is to commit to a proven model for encouraging inefficiency, immorality and a lack of freedom that interact to be a cause for crisis and, historically, acquiesence to an elitist model that cyclically reinforces and reinvents itself. An elitist model always deliberately discourages the natural tendency for a peaceful and prosperous pluralism. It cultivates and ensures its succession with the promise of a short-term comfort and security that assures the probability of an insecure future.

Invest pluralism of the marketplace in priority, not its continued consolidation as we are determined to do now despite the domonstrable political will for "change we need."

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Recovery Phase Indicator

Oil prices near $50 per barrel signals a stop and reversal of the deflationary phase and the beginning of the recovery phase of the business cycle.

Commanding the price of energy and food (core CPI) commands the depth and breadth of the cycle. Command has been accomplished with deregulation of a consolidated capital and the use of futures and options contracts. All that is required to reverse the deflationary trend is to stop buying futures contracts and allow prices to return to a "fundamental" bid rather than the speculative bubble bid of a consolidated capital.

It does not indicate the deconsolidation of the capital, but the active management of it by not inequitably bidding up the price of commodities and taking the value of your income, the value of your home and your savings. That value is now consolidated to the point of diminishing return. Specifically, at the most fundamental level of finance, it is the point at which the only people left capable of paying taxes--paying the debt and financing real estate dvelopment--is the upper class of incomes.

The value consolidated is now considered, by the principles of conservatism, to be the rightful ownership of those who own the consolidated capital--the people Obama is going to raise taxes to fianance our economic recovery. Opposition to it is solely a function of class distinction, of what defines the ruling class: you do not pay taxes, you collect them.

If the money needed to bail out the financial system you wrecked with leverage finanace must be borrowed from you through Treasury and the Federal Reserve system, you cannot be assigned the creditor status if you are the only party, class, that can pay it. Thus, economic growth, or the recovery phase of the cycle, marked by the reversal of core CPI indicators like fuel and food.

We now have a chief executive not incumbent to the creditors of our debtor-subject society. This is not a realignment from conservative to liberal identity that perpetuates the cycle of preserving conservative values and principles that verifiably result in overaccumulated wealth that causes cyclical crisis.

The larger cycle of a diffusion of power is in operation. As the retributive value is paid, rather than borrowed, through a peaceful pluralistic process that comes with a deconsolidation of wealth and power, the human condition is that much closer to actualizing an identity of self that was once the utopian fantasy of the dystopic critique.

Try as we may, there is no stopping the ideal whose time has come.

The ambition to power and dominion has been hoisted on its own petard. Where aspiring to a social position that by definition we cannot all have produced great wealth and power, the utility has diminished into large-scale economic inefficiencies and an absurd quality of existence in a a kind of existential Skinner Box where the self is condemned to the reward of the promise of freedom on command.

The contradiction is so profound to be irreversable. Our lives are no longer to be defined by the absurdity of being the slave aspiring to be the master. Our moral intelligence has matured to the empirical, practical realization, in the words of Abraham Lincoln, "As I would not want to be a slave, I do not want to be a master."

Real Critique of Free Markets or the Consolidation of the Capital?

Predicting the Future of Political-Economic Organization


Concentration of wealth commands power. If the wealth is shared, or "spread around" as Republicans have cheaply described it, saying it will cause us to be unproductive and lead us into crisis, power is also shared, or pluralized, which reduces the probability, the risk, of crisis and the elitist management of it.

Pluralizing power maximizes the probability for a peaceful prosperity and direct accountability of the ambition to take power and exercise it. A person that wants to take power and command the fate of others, the processes of power must be consolidated politically and economically. Key to the process is the legitimacy of power because it causes, by cognitive process, the political will necessary to consent to the status quo or not.

Saying that sharing the wealth is inimical to prosperity and peace is necessarily argued as an absolute principle, like a natural law, of an uncomprimisable logical proof in spite of the overwhelming empirical evidence to the contrary. If the principle is defied, the proof of its veracity is the consequence of economic crisis.

The deepening economic crisis will be blamed on policies and programs designed to "spread the wealth around" so that the legitimacy of conservative principles will retrench and be operationally conserved.

In the past, the causal factors of the crisis have been conserved by being applied as the solution. Treasury now says the bailout money is to be applied by not buying worthless assets, but by buying an equity stake in risk-prone financial firms and encouraging them to consolidate, or too big to fail, which makes them risk prone.

The problem is applied, reinvented, as the solution. It is a technical trick of the bureaucratic model of power, making the process and outcome of power appear to be decisionally pluralistic and legitimately accountable. The wealth is thereby consolidated with a false legitimacy that will result in crisis.

The bureaucratic management of the consolidation is something private enterprise used to do in the name of free markets by detroying it. The practice has been used into an obsolesence of obvious practical absurdity.

Rather than destroy the causal relationship, the elitist process of power has been reinvented to give it a pluralistic legitimacy. It will result in crisis because the legitimacy is false: it is not a free market if industry and markets are allowed to consolidate nor is it accountable to The People. The process is not legitimately pluralistic and accountable if it is being commanded, evaluated and reinvented by elits to be organized and reorganized into "too big to fail."

The taxpayer as preferred shareholder in the bailout plan is antithetical to the process of private enterprise operating as a means of governiing with the power to tax in the form of "pricing power" that comes by means of consolidating the wealth and, therefore, power. Government by and for The People is, then, an evil to be described as "the problem and not the solution." Reverse this elitist model scenario and We have the solution that serves The People instead of The People serving the feudal ambitions of an elite ruling class drunk with the incompetence of a non-pluralistic accountability that iterates an unfettered greed and avarice throughout the social structure with the result being the crisis it has always been argued and practiced to prevent.

When after applying the problem as the solution and government is required to prevent massive suffering of The People, like famine and war, and the problem is just reinvented and retrenched, We The People are then told by conservatives We are "getting the government we deserve," meaning We are better off with no government and, therefore, no accountability at all. Accountability is best organized and applied, conservatives argue, through the free market and private enterprise which, of course, has been consolidated to prevent its legitimate operation and causing the need for government that the elitist model argues We do not need and are better off without.

The result is a power structure organized to consolidate wealth and, therefore. power. Rather than a champion of The People, the constitutional guarantee of government by and for The People is an orgainized adjunct to give private consolidation of wealth and power the force and legitimacy of public authority which acts, in contradiction, to command the consent of the governed. The contradiction ensures the probability of cyclical crisis at 100 percent.

The policies and programs of Treasury will result in perpetuating, not alleviating the crisis. It will act to reinforce dependancy on credit in our debtor economy, which has been the fundamental source of the problem--liquidity crisis and reliance on the failed Hamiltonian model with a false legitimacy of power that promises to produce the General Welfare without the wisdom. the accountability, of the collective will of The People.

Hedging the Risk

"Hedging the risk" suggests a protective function. It is supposed to protect us from damages, and originally the financial technology was to do just that, not cause it or predictably inflict it.

The element of fundamental economic certainty the hedge funding technique provides in a free market has been perverted to predictably cause a cost/benefit ratio: to command industry, markets, and prices (the profit or economic rent) to behave with a "certain" cost and benefit.

Consolidation of the capital, however, perverts the protective function to stabilize prices for a planned instability (volatility of buying long then selling short not to stabilize or protect from loss, but to manipulate prices to consolidate the wealth or cause loss for a capital gain) that, if timed, will cause predictable oscillations both micro and macro. It allows for manipulation of market prices, which is illegal.

The hedge fund managers now testifying on Capitol Hill are now engaged in a confidence game of convincing us that their activities are a reflection of fundamental economic realites that stabilize prices and drive investment into peak markets (profits) like capitalism is legitimately supposed to do. It is a fraud.

The hedge fund executives illegally manipulate prices and engage in fraudulent statements to explain price movements that are caused by mere mass movement of consolidated capital in and out of markets (the command). Instead of providing the public good of stabilizing market prices with realistic valuations as they claim, the buy-long-sell-short technique causes volatility and extreme uncertainty of valuation that is nothing but an arbitrary and capricious exercise of market power that violates the free market legitimacy of a pluralistic determination of "fair" market value.

The ability to command market values defines what free-market economics is not, and defines the practitioners of command economics as the criminal element, inimical to the pluralistic process of a collective bargain that legitimately determines what "fair value" is.

Claiming that the ability to command valuations is the result of free-market economics is pure nonsense. It is a fraud. Fraud in the marketplace is a crime against a civil society that values the peaceful processes of a pluralistic legitimacy of power, which is what our Constitution is clearly intended to ensure across all jurisdictional boundaries both public and private. Pluralism is commanded by The Constitution. It is the task of government authority to protect and defend it, to ensure it, in priority.

So President Bush delivered a speech on the benefit of maintaining a free market system that coincides with public investigation of the black-box financing technique, lending a sense of efficiency to what is entirely antithetical and inimical to free markets.

Since the black-box hedge fund technology has not been regulated, being therefore "free," the result is legitimately supposed to be beneficial to everyone. It is beneficial, efficient, by definition because it is free. The means justifies the ends in an unempirical, unscientific, tautology of syllogistic proof that for centuries led people, for example, to "believe" the earth is flat and static at the center of the universe.

Like the complex predcitable utility of Tyco Brahe's proof of retrograde planetary motion in macro physics, Bush's speech representing the utility of the current macro theory and practice of economics should be thrown out, junked, on grounds of complexity alone, much less because its political legitimacy of providing for the General Welfare is empirically disconfirmed in the most obvious way.

Yes, the system of economics Bush claims has the highest utility provides a high level of predictive certainty. It is predictably bad for the vast majority of The People and so complex that it requires elite management that consider themselves, and their expertise, beyond the vulgar accountability of The People, all of which is completely antithetical to the concept of freedom generally and a free-market economy in particular.

Bush's argument is both syllogistically disproven in theory and disconfirmed in practice. It also has been rejected by The People with a popular, legal non-consent of the governed. Bush's argument now occupies space within the circular file of clearly disconfirmed hypotheses and completely ridiculous arguments.

The reason our current economic crisis "is not failure of free markets" is because we do not have free markets. It is a failure of command economics: a failure of a consolidated marketplace commanded by hedge funds, private equity and dependancy on the Wal Mart business model in which an economy of scale is an economy of command.

That organizing for consolidated command and control is the model of inefficiency is why We have The Constitution. We need these hedge-fund managers like We The People need King George!

To argue the general benefit of the economic system and economic techniques now in operation is to publicly make a fool of yourself! We are not talking about a brand of beliefs out of favor here, we are talking about wholesale rejection of a failed theory and practice subject to the rigors of the scientific method in the modern world, easily identifying and separating empiricists from bureaucratic-executive court jestors masquerading as expert logicians arguing the secret knowledge, the exclusive higher understanding, of what freedom is and the path to attainment.

Rendering the financial system a virtual mystery cult of elite understanding is necessary to avoid accountability, legitimacy, something that a free market easily, simply, efficiently provides if We ensure it in priority.

Hedging the risk has become the exclusive knowledge and practice of this mysterious black box that the managers are telling public officials needs to remain the undisclosed, exclusive domain of the experts because it is too complex to be criticized by the ignorant masses, by the uninitiated public and its elected good offices.

Emerging from Plato's allegory of the cave, this is what we see in the full light of day.

Hedge funds function to consolidate the capital--the means of financing what we want and at what price. It functions to make the decision of finance the exclusive domain of the owners of the capital (like King George) who take ownership by "freely" commanding what is supposed to be a free market that checks the consolidation of the power, disallows command economy that cpmmands exclusive class distribution of rewards and deprivations, and determines the efficiency of markets to innovate and grow with full employment and low inflation.

The result of a free market ensured in priority is not indicated by massive debt and liquidity crisis, but by the reverse. It is a hypothesis we now have a mandate to fully test.

This is all about the ownership of the capital that decides what is produced and at what price. If The People own the capital, then they collectively decide by operation of the free and unconsolidated marketplace--a clearly verifiable, tranparent, visible means to ends legitimacy of power.

To make the decision of capital finance "exclusive" in order to ensure an inequity that causes inefficiencies to be managed by elits in crisis requires a technology, a technique, for taking ownership of the capital. It is necessary to consolidate The People's wealth and to do it with an inscrutible complexity immune to a public critique because it is contrary to a free-market legitimacy and declaring yourself of royal status is fundamentally, Constitutionally, illegal.

A system of finance and adminstration is created (Hamiltonianism) in which entities are created too big, complex and intertwined (consolidated) to fail that prey on entities too small, simple and unconsolidated to survive. To survive it is necessary to consolidate, to conform to an economy, a model, of scale so bigger is better and hedges the risk. The economy of scale does not create efficiency, it makes survival more certain and is capable of commanding inefficiencies and abuses that otherwise will not survive the accountability of free-market economics.

The consolidated entity is then "at liberty" to hedge the risk even further and ensure its survival in priority by eliminating the legitimate accountability, including the efficiencies, of a free market mechanics. The capital is consolidated, thus ensuring the continuous innovation of the means, the technological efficiency, of keeping the wealth, and markets, in consolidated command and control.

Where capital becomes "shared" or "spread around," it must be consolidated. So it is now necessary for hedge fund managers to argue the necessity of keeping the data on their operations (the black box) undisclosed. It needs to be undisclosed because manipulating markets and prices on command, and consolidating your savings, your capital, is illegitimate. It is a criminal activity inimical to civil society.

Pensions, IRA's, 401K's do not conform to the economy of scale and the Hamiltonian model until it is consolidated. If you believe that the model yields the highest productive efficiency, the ownership of the capital must be consolidated for the greatest good of society.

Since consolidating the wealth by definition means it must be deprived from its owner, the trick is to make it look like the expropriation occurs by legitimate pluralistic processes both public and private, political and economic. Hedge funds are managed to accomplish this fictitiuos process and are now engaged in the public process on Capitol Hill where its critics will not condone, but will exonerate the fraud with a regulatory reform full of loopholes written into it by experts in the field. This describes The Bureaucratic Model of Power and Political Economy. It attains elite results through a means of decisional power with elite technocrats that suggests a pluralistic, Constitutional, process of accountability in operation.

Instead of the direct accountability and economic efficiencies of a free-market economics, We have an elite determination of what is fair and valuable. The inefficiencies of the command economy and the operation of an economy of scale is preserved to command crisis economics and politics in the future. without the bureaucracy engaged first and foremost to ensure a free and unconsolidated marketplace in priority, crisis is predictably determined to perpetual cycle of boom and bust and the consolidation of the wealth and power.

Reinventing the Conservative Element of Power

The change of party identity in 2008 is more than just a political realignment from Republican to Democrat with an eventual cyclical swing back to Republican.

As it was at the founding of our nation, the power structure is dependent on The People buying-in to the structuring of its elements that are not properly identified by party identification. Foremost among The People's concerns was that The Revolution should not result in a strong central authority that will tax them into subjugation, and Jefferson warned of the effects of a Hamiltonian economic structure that would be very well realized by mid-Nineteenth Century in which The People were literally starving in the streets. Hardly the model of the General Welfare and a perfecting of the union.

Rejection of the conservative ideal is by deliberate cognition. We should not allow it to be reinvented in the guise of party realignment to cause a retrenchment of conservative principles, and the party apparatus that administers them, as We have in the past.

Disconfirmation of the conservative means-to-ends legitimacy has been declared by a collective action of non-consent. It is now necessary to restructure the elements of power so that its means-to-ends hypothesis is the clearly verifiable legitimacy of a popular consent, not the declaration of a power elite validated by authority of a controlled public process.

Where the conservative element of power originated with the nascent consent of the governed within a newly established nation with the promise of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, it has been rendered to be but by the consent of a ruling class of would-be kings, just as Jefferson surmised.

Freedom, sovereignty, is not bestowed, protected and defended from the top down. It is simply practiced from the bottom up. Structures that impede pluralistic processes of power must be eliminated if We want freedom. The first step, the political will, has been taken to reject the principles of conservatism in which the consolidation of power is legitimized by the nascent consent of the governed.

Rather than reinvented to once again assume the thrown of a popular consent by the partisan processes of collective identity, the conservative element of power is to be properly placed within the structure of power. It has properly earned its place at the fringe of credible political-economic theory and practice.

The conservative model of power provides us with what We should not do, and very surely indicates what we should.

Toggling party alignment is no substitute for a logically positive intelligence of The People toward a verifiable continuous improvement. Realignment of the party identifier is just a verifiable means to secure the ends of the status quo ante.

The change we need eminates from the decisive consent of the governed extending from the individual to identify the state rather than the public processes of the state giving identity to The People. One is a will to subjugation, the other is the will to freedom that is the clearly identifiable Will of The People that identifies the state with a properly clear and verifiable means-to-ends legitimacy.

The success of pursuing life, liberty and happiness is not the successful subjugation of The People so to define yourself as the rightful owner of consolidated wealth and power, having then earned identity as the power elite with the capacity to determine the extent, the opportunity, for The People's right to self-determination. The available choice, and the citizen's identity, is defined by a dummy variable, just like two-party politics, of compliance or non-compliance (no reward) with the satus quo ante. The election of 2008, however, has rewarded the choice of non-compliance the impetus for change empowered with the the force and legitimacy of publiv authority.

The Right to Self-Determination is every bit a Natural Right, forever poised to assert itself, by means of our own choosing, one way or another whether the proponents of the elitist (Hamiltonian) model of power like it or not. Resisting what is morally imperative by operation of our intellect (allowing for by administering to the collective wisdom, the General Will, and benefit, of The People) needlessly imperils civil society with punctuated events of natural correction typically characterized by needless suffering.

The suffering that accompanies the choice to ignore the righteousness of pluralistic means to ends is what The Constitution of the United States, to which our leadership swears to protect and defend, is fully designed to prevent. It provides us with the choice of freedom in our natural condition of a political self-determination, not to be improperly confused with, as conservatives would like us all to believe, socialism.

Conservatives that operate with the principle of rightfully subjecting The People to the reward of their rule apply a means to ends that is antithetical to our constitutional form of government. Self rule is not verified as a limited, exclusive reward of determining the self of others and crowning yourself the ruling class.

Our current economic crisis--rising prices, falling incomes, loss of savings and unemployment for The People (Reaganomics)--is not the result of a beneficent ruling class. No. It is the result of a maleficent class of elits determined to deprive The People to confirm and sustain what they consider the "rightful ownership" of your wealth in surplus.

The legitimacy of that surplused value, according to classical economic theory, is for reinvestment in YOU, not a reward of success to be horded and witheld by an elite to assume the role of tyrant (to govern with the sovereign right to rule) for the determination of YOUR fate and the opportunity to pursue YOUR life, YOUR liberty and YOUR happiness (the Jeffersonian critique of the Hamiltonian economic model that conservatives call soicalism and a tyranny Jefferson knew ensuring pluralism operates to prevent). It is an illegitimate model of power that neither extends from The People or protects them from enemies either foreign or domestic but, rather, operates to protect the enemies of civil society from the legitimate power, the legal sovereignty, of The People.

A peaceful and prosperous pluralism, a deconsolidation of power, ensuring power be exercised from the bottom up, aspiring to a more Jeffersonian form of government, is clearly in order as the change we need with the force and legitimacy of public authority.

We must be sure to understand the identity of the conservative element is entirely dependant on structuring the political-economic means of class society. Deprivation of The People, and the possibility of majority rule, is a necessary condition. It has always, and will always, result in economic crisis like what we have now because We cannot all be upper class by definition.

The conservative element will identify the measures required to eliminate the crisis as depriving you of the opportunity, the aspiration, to be upper class.

Understand that consolidation of wealth and power renders the opportunity for upward mobility virtually zero. Limiting opportunity is what it is designed and intended to do. Innovations are quickly consolidated and often its efficiency deprived to protect upper-class income at the expense of all other income classes. It is a virtual fraud. Consolidation of wealth and power ensures your being poorer, not richer in every respect, politically and economically.

The only way to ensure the wealth of our nation without events of punctuated crisis that make the rich richer and everyone else poorer is to ensure the deconsolidation of wealth and power. That will maximize the probability, the possibility, for the production of wealth, and the full and immediate effect of innovative efficiencies both in price and quality, with a secure stability, propogating throughout our global economy as the model of success.

Maximizing the opportunity for the production of the wealth of nations is the best way to protect ourselves from enemies both foreign and domestic. War and violence to secure an equitable share of the wealth, and power, is rendered obsolete. The distribution phase of the business cycle will not be dependant on a crisis phase of a cycle in which We keep making the same mistake over and over again, but the self-corrective, empirical means of forming a more perfect union with the operant means of a self-determination, and an intelligence that far exceeds the capacity of an exclusive, elitist access and administration of power.

Reinvention of the conservative element will be the opportunity that does not exist.