Artificial Risk?

A common assessment of the current sovereign-debt crisis is that it is artificially constructed. What this analysis is essentially saying is that the risk does not present as ontological.

If we thought philosophical analyses are not important or irrelevant, we were wrong.

We detect a lack of apparent ontology because the analytical space is packed with artifice. Just because we tend to nurture nature toward specific performance does not in any way mean that these artifices are unnatural. In fact, this concept of "natural" is completely wrong and analysts that rely on this false valuation of probable risk will get burned by unexpected, trend reversals.

Manipulating nature (risk, for example) does not make the outcome any less ontological, and this is where analysts are presented with the angst-principle and the gamma-risk dimension.

Since angst is a feeling (which tends to be politically accumulated and expressed in the gamma dimension), empirical analysts tend to ignore it as unmeasurable (and, wrongly, unreasonable). Market analysts use the VIX indicator, but it is largely post-hoc data with limited predictive value. Ignoring the angst-principle, however, is like trying to land on the moon by ignoring the effects of gravity. The probability you will be successful is nearly zero, but successfully landing would not be in any way unnatural whether it is by chance alone or not.

The debt-limit debate (the sovereign-debt crisis) is no different. Just because the ceiling can be raised with a routine stroke of the pen does not mean that this is a false crisis. Yes, it may be artificial (a political artifice) but it is not false. The crisis it presents is real and easily predictable in the gamma dimension.

Understand, for example, that the political artifice is packed with retributive value--it is saturated with angst. Not only was the angst (the motivated level of determination) the determining variable that predicts the crisis, but its support and resistance predicts the probable political-economic trend after it.

Without the necessary, conceptual tools, analysts, both political and economic, will quite naturally miss the target.