Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Support and Resistance

If you trade equities, you probably notice that support more often than not becomes resistance. Popular analytics are full of this observation and refer to it as psychological modeling rather than identify it as the elitist model that it is to accurately predict price movements. Admitting an elitist model of consolidated wealth will not get you published.

While being psychologically tricked into a market position is licit, manipulation through a disproportionate amount of concentrated capital smacks of an illicit means for fixing the price.

The support-becomes-resistance technique of price manipulation forces the trader to buy-in to a ceiling in order to establish a predictable basis. The result is to manipulate the small investor into a constant wash. It is less important for the power of consolidated capital to profit from program trading--if "you" buy in at X THEN resist at X--than to consolidate the funds available to the market, like 401k funds. It is all important to acquire the means to consolidate, even if it means taking a loss, because it is THE formula for gaining power and keeping it.

Consolidating the value affords the ability to command it in the guise of predicting it; to, in other words, manipulate prices.

Support-to-resistance program trading triggers exchanges to automatically suspend trading to prevent a program collapse of the market. It is rather emblematic of our faceless, impersonal consolidation of wealth and power that, if left unchecked, could result in untold devastation, even for the elite of power, so it is programmed, fixed, to be technically impossible.

The countermove for the small investor is to average-in at the new support level determined by the short-interest program indicator. The bad part is that it requires the small investor use twice the capital to achieve the expected return on a typical technical indication. The indicator must be modified to account for the program trade manipulation of the price with the consolidated capital, which is at record levels. The trader cannot wait for the modifier, per se, and not spend the extra cash since whether a position is taken or not triggers the resistance program.

That record level of consolidation is the prime determinant of our current macro-economic status, in a crisis mode. Where the economy should be at a level of technical support, it becomes resistance. So, we are looking at interest rates getting resistance at historically low levels with high levels of inflation. The result is a highly arbitrary, unpredictable, bureaucratic macro model of command and control that is only predictable from the inside--the elitist model of power.

Command control of our economy is what ails us. It will be an Obama/Biden executive that will reverse the trend for command economy that comes with the over-consolidation of the capital. This reversal will not be socialism which preserves the consolidation of power. We will continue with the command macro if we have a McCain executive.

The progressive tax code Obama proposes will begin to deconsolidate the capital for a macro that will allow typical technical indicators to have predicitve utility without modification. That lack of a needed modifier will indicate that the progression of the tax code is working to deconsolidate the capital to build a more pluralistic economy and a model of power that does not consolidate the opportunity to grow your personal wealth, but fully allows for it!

Obama/Biden 2008!

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