Thursday, October 16, 2008

Volatility Indicator

The CBOE volatility index, the VIX, is over 80, at a new high.

As I noted recently, big volatility indicates the bottom valuation. It also indicates the inimical effects of a consolidated capital.

As capital, industry and markets continue to consolidate with the deflationary phase of the business cycle, valuations are uncertain and The People largely lose.

The benefit of the cycle is solely the top one-percent of income class. If you are not a member of this class, supporting the conservative agendae, be it economic or social, is not your self-interest, it is not the collective interest.

While the high VIX indicates an undershoot--an oversold condition, it also indicates what the institutions of high finance don't want to tell you. It means not only will The People lose their jobs, but as they dip into their savings to finance daily expenses, they lose net value to the VIX.

Even if you can average-in to the financial markets, the gain to restore your losses could be years away if you are not able to play the volatility. If you do that, the sole determinant of price movement is the money flow of consolidated capital and what side of the market your volume is positioned; that is, the market is rigged for you to lose because the concentration of capital allows for an inequity on the bid which manipulates prices against your position, whatever it may be.

Successfully playing the volatility requires you always be opposite the money flow indicators. Do not hesitate. Do not wait for the top or the bottom. Just bail out, or in, as the case may be. Big money on the bid will change the technicals at a moments notice, leaving you holding the toxic waste.

If you thought the bailout plan would be beneficial to The People... no, it is proving detrimental as I said it would, easily predictable because the plan fits the Hamiltonian model of finance which is to assure the welfare of the rich in priority.

The plan supports consolidation of financials, making them bigger and so will increase the probability of leveraging risk--what causes the crisis we are in. It is not the solution, it is the problem, short and long.

The solution we need is antithetical to the Hamiltonian model--a genuine bottum-up bailout by taxing the gain and reinvesting that gain in pluralizing, recapitalizing, the economy. Capital is made available for growth rather than just profits on an expanded supply of money and an increasing public debt with a declining ability to pay it with a highly regressive, no-groth tax code. The result will be an easily predictable, robust economic recovery both short and long.

Obama/Biden!

No comments: